While established authors have certainly gotten their fair share of the attention during the transition of e-readers into the mainstream marketplace, the real media darlings of the self-publishing movement are a series of enigmatic rags-to-riches writers, the majority of them previously unpublished.
In the last five months, the names Amanda Hocking and John Locke have rapidly become symbolic bastions submitted as evidence for the best-case scenario in self-publishing.
Before the Kindle, Hocking—the author of a staggering number of paranormal romance novels that almost total her age (26)—found herself repeatedly rebuffed by mainstream publishers. Locke, who mostly writes crime novels, had never so much as submitted a book to a traditional publisher.
By the early months of 2011, rumors floated about that both writers were on their way to becoming millionaires. All of this, mind you, in a short six-month period.
“In November, I experienced a sales increase of 823 percent over October,” Locke says. “In December, those numbers increased by an additional 1,052 percent. January sales rose an additional 556 percent. It was mind-boggling.”
As of April 12, 2011, Locke had five novels in the top forty on Amazon’s bestseller list. Vegas Moon and Saving Rachel sat at #7 and #9, respectively, the latter sandwiched between Nora Roberts’ Chasing Fire and Suzanne Collins’ The Hunger Games.
As Hocking and Locke are now self-published authors flirting with the million-books-sold marker, those interested in the business of selling e-books have certainly heralded their success. Most, however, also continue to view them as outliers.
According to Robin Sullivan, owner of Ridan Publishing and the wife of bestselling fantasy e-book author Michael Sullivan, the success stories of Hocking and Locke are in many ways analogous to winning the lottery. “For those wishing to make a living in writing they can be an inspiration, something to dream about,” she says. “But by definition they will be one in a million.”
Traveling the country to spread the gospel of self-publishing, Mrs. Sullivan views the ceiling for most e-book authors as something closer to that of a mid-list writer—albeit, one with the potential for much higher profits.
According to Mrs. Sullivan, traditional publishers take 90 percent of the profits from the first 5,000 hardbacks sold, 88 percent of the next 5,000, and 85 percent of all copies sold after 10,000. If a book is lucky enough to make it to paperback, its author can expect 7.5 percent of the total profits.
By comparison, self-publishing e-books on Amazon flips the game on its head. As long as a book is offered between $2.99 and $9.99, the company only takes a 30 percent cut, leaving authors with up to a full 70 percent of the profits from their work. Both Apple and Barnes and Noble offer similar models for the respective Nook and iPad/iPhone bookstores.
This process allows the preponderance of the bestselling independent e-book authors to sell their books for under $3, giving them a sharp competitive edge. Based on the early sales data, it seems that the typical e-book owner is more than willing to take a chance on a novel priced between 99 cents and $3, especially one that they find resting on the bestseller list directly beneath a book from the likes of a Clive Cussler or a James Patterson.
According to Locke, this tactic has shifted the sales momentum firmly onto the side of the self-published authors.
“I knew by offering my books for one-tenth [of what other authors were charging], I could level the playing field,” Locke says. “No longer would I have to prove my books were as good as the bestselling authors. Now they had to prove their books were ten times better than mine. And in that type of game, I liked my odds.”
So what does all this mean? Should new writers forgo the age-old tradition of finding an agent and approaching mainstream publishers? Will the role of the traditional publisher diminish over the next decade?
Stephen Leather doesn’t think so. He believes that the “slush-pile” has merely taken root online. “Unpublished” authors have been re-branded as “Indie Writers.” The distinction, he believes, goes beyond mere semantics.
“There are exceptions, of course, and there are some very good indie e-books out there. But they are the minority and it seems to me that a lot of so-called indie writers would be better off honing their craft and really making an effort to get an agent and a publisher before rushing to put their work up for sale as an e-book.”
Putting aside opinions regarding the quality of the work, there is no doubt that an interesting dichotomy has developed over the course of the last four months. According to Scott Nicholson, for those who have already made their mark, the whole industry is in flux.
“Writers who were traditionally published are doing the math and seeing greater profit margins and more creative freedom in the indie world, while a few successful indie authors are being lured into big publishing,” he says.
One of these authors is HP Mallory. Her first two books, Fire Burn and Cauldron Bubble and its sequel Toil and Trouble, both rose quickly in 2010 to the top five on Amazon’s Fantasy list. An editor at Random House happened to notice them on the list, and after reading the novels she immediately reached out to Mallory with an offer. Taking the call from her office, Mallory says that she nearly fell out of her chair when she realized who was on the phone.
“My goal is to become a household name in paranormal romance, and I don’t believe I can get there through self publishing alone. Having the backing of a powerhouse like Random House is huge.”
Sitting comfortably atop a sizable advance, Mallory will now find the final chapters of her series splayed across the shelves of bookstores all across the country. And she isn’t alone. Michael Sullivan is currently mulling over a $125,000 advance in order to finish his popular Riyria Revelations in print. And then there is Hocking who recently struck the mother lode by signing a $2 million contract with St. Martin’s.
But while many independent authors are more than willing to accept a promotion to the major leagues, many of traditional publishing’s biggest stars are also doing just the opposite. As an example, Robin Sullivan points to Barry Eisler, the author of the popular series of John Rain novels, who recently turned down a $500,000 contract in order to self-publish. Reputedly, Bob Mayer turned down even more money on his own path to self-publishing.
David Dalglish, author of the Half-Orc e-book series, says he constantly feels the stress of being pulled from both directions. After all, there aren’t really any suitable example cases to emulate. The authors that have risen during the 2010-2011 e-book boom are in essence trailblazers trying their best to wade through a series of complex decisions.
“I’d love to walk into Barnes & Noble and see a book of mine on a shelf,” Dalglish says. “But I’m not going to screw myself out of money just to appease my vanity. The average advance for most authors is around $5,000. Yeah, that won’t cut it. The next book I’ll be releasing with make that in a month.”
The question of whether or not to self-publish has become fundamental to the future of publishing. The proper course of action, it seems, has fallen into the murky quagmire of math and statistics. Big publishers can provide big exposure, but at a greater cost. Self-publishing might lead to greater profits initially, but the process is not nearly as likely to raise an independent author into the stratospheric ranks of the household names like King and Rowling and Meyer.
Nicholson agrees that there are no easy answers. In the end, he believes that independent authors and industry veterans alike can do no more than take a step back, breath deeply, and then see what the future holds for them. No one can predict how the industry will adjust to the recent changes, but for the time being, authors like Nicholson take solace in the fact that there are more options for them now than at any point in the history of publishing.
“It will be interesting to see how it shakes out in a few years, but right now, authors understand they have a real choice.”
Previously: How did the e-reader boom begin?